It’s a good year to need a wide receiver or two.
That’s the unanimous verdict on the position in this year’s NFL draft. Close your eyes, pick one and there’s a potential Jerry Rice just waiting to reinvigorate a struggling offense when player selection begins April 23.
Raiders general manager Mike Mayock knows better.
“I think there’s just as many misses up top at wide receiver as there are at quarterback,” Mayock said at the NFL scouting combine.
With picks at Nos. 12 and 19 in the first round, conventional wisdom has it the Raiders will take one of this year’s Big Three: Jerry Jeudy (Alabama), CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma) or Henry Ruggs III (Alabama).
Jeudy is the most polished route runner, Lamb a physical specimen who breaks tackles and finds the end zone, and Ruggs has the most game-breaking potential (think Tyreek Hill).
“They’re all different types,” Arizona general manager Steve Keim said. “Ruggs is the straight-line, vertical guy. Jeudy is athletic and bendy and can run multiple cut routes and is sudden in and out of breaks. Then you’ve got CeeDee, who’s extremely physical and attacks the ball.:”
Then again, given that Mayock estimates 20 to 25 receivers with third-round grades or better, the Raiders could address other issues and still come up with another target for Derek Carr given they currently have three third-round picks (Nos. 80, 81 and 91) to go with two in the first.
Baltimore general manager Eric DeCosta told reporters he liked the odds of landing a potential starting pass catcher on Day 3.
“We think this year that there’s a really good chance to get a guy that can probably be a starter for you in the fifth round of the draft.”
There have been no more than 14 receivers drafted within the first three rounds in each of the last five drafts.
Last season, Oklahoma’s Marquise Brown (Baltimore) and Arizona State’s N’Keal Harry (Arizona State) were taken at No. 25 and No. 32. They were outperformed by second-rounders Deebo Samuels of South Carolina (49ers) and A.J. Brown of Mississippi (Tennessee).
Neither of the first round picks approached the production of Mississippi’s D.K. Metcalf (Seattle) and Ohio State’s Terry McLaurin (Washington), third-round picks at No. 64 and 76.
Two of the most productive wideouts in 2019 were Chris Godwin by Tampa Bay (No. 84) and Kenny Golladay of Detroit (No. 96), both taken in the third round in 2017. The two combined for 151 receptions, 2,523 yards and 20 touchdowns last season for the Bucs and Lions.
Oklahoma wide receiver CeeDee Lamb is considered a certain first-round pick in the NFL draft. Getty Images
The 2015 draft, during which the Raiders took Amari Cooper No. 4 overall, finds only two of 14 receivers with the same organizaton that drafted them — DeVante Parker of Miami (No. 14) and Tyler Lockett of Seattle (No. 69). The other 12 are with new teams or out of the league.
Nelson Agholor, a first-round pick in 2015 (No. 20) by Philadelphia, came to the Raiders on a minimum veteran deal “prove it” deal) as a free agent.
As it stands, the top two receivers on 2020 roster for the Raiders are Tyrell Williams, undrafted out of Western Oregon and originally signed by the Chargers in 2016, and Hunter Renfrow, a fifth-round pick by the Raiders out of Clemson last season.
Zay Jones, a former second-round pick by Buffalo, was acquired for a fifth-round pick last season. Also on the roster are Marcel Ateman, Rico Gafford and Anthony Ratliff-Williams.
It’s a hit or miss position, and Mayock has his theories on why it’s so difficult to determine the wheat from the chaff.
First is the quality of NFL defensive backs, particularly in press man-to-man coverage.
“When you’ve got a grown man trying to keep you from getting off the line of scrimmage, that’s a different issue,” Mayock said.
Coach Kyle Shanahan of the 49ers agrees.
“The way college football is a little bit there’s not as much man-to-man coverage,” Shanahan said. “There’s a lot more zone. “You don’t always get to see a developed receiver. And it takes time to develop a guy. So you never know how long that’s going to take.”
Some of the fastest receivers in college football discover they’re not nearly as fast when processing all the information in an NFL pass route.
“You could go from being the third option on the back side to the first option on the front side,” Mayock said. “And you’ve got to filter that on the run without slowing down. Why do guys not look as quick as they were in college? They’re confused.”
The sheer volume of an NFL playbook is in contrast to no-huddle systems where receivers are essentially playing with crib notes in the form of sideline coaches giving their routes by hand signals. That’s in contrast to a Raiders system where Jon Gruden wants every receiver to understand both outside positions as well as the slot.
“I’ve met with some of the college wideouts this year and half of them are doing this pre-snap,” Mayock said. “They look over at the sideline and they have their own individual coach telling them what route to run. Jon Gruden’s head would explode. You’d better get in the huddle and you’d better learn three positions, and what he’s asking you to learn is mind-boggling.”
It helps when coaches are able to put receivers in positions that play to their strengths. The Raiders got little from speedy Darius Heyward-Bey, the No. 7 pick in the first round of the 2009 draft, continually trying to get him the ball downfield.
Heyward-Bey, however, had trouble adjusting to balls in flight. He had his most productive season when then offensive coordinator Hue Jackson allowed him to use his size and tackle-breaking ability with short passes desinged to get yards after catch. Heyward-Bey caught 64 passes for 954 yards in 2011, the best season of his career.
Then, of course, there’s an occasionally overlooked aspect that is the defining characteristic of the position. One that also was an issue with Heyward-Bey.
“Let’s start with a guy who can catch the football,” Buffalo coach Sean McDermott said. “I think people look past that sometimes.”
The Raiders scouted normally through the combine, but retreated to virtual scouting and video conferencing by NFL decree in March due to the coronavirus pandemic. The trick will be figuring which receivers can make the mental adjustment to being an NFL receiver — especially if it’s a first-round pick counted on to contribute immediately.
“What I’m most nervous about, if you’re going to draft a wide out, is can we get first-year production out of the guy?,” Mayock said. “Because if you look at the numbers, it’s not real good.”
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