The Chargers pushed their 56-year San Diego Era further into the past Thursday night when they drafted a quarterback to succeed Philip Rivers.
Justin Herbert is a riskier prospect than Rivers was in 2004, but there are resemblances.
Tall, brainy and wholesome, Herbert was Oregon’s starter for four years, as Rivers was with North Carolina State. Ending his career on a high note, Herbert ran for three touchdowns in the Rose Bowl, not unlike Rivers throwing for five TDs in his collegiate finale.
Rivers was the better prospect because he entered the NFL as a more polished and deft passer.
Herbert had a lot of success, too, throwing for 95 touchdowns and leading the Ducks to a 29-13 record.
It’ll be up to the Chargers to make good use of Herbert’s rare blend of very good arm strength and foot speed.
As he learns from veteran starter Tyrod Taylor, the 6-foot-6 rookie can get acquainted with a good playmaking cast headed by Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler, putting him on footing he lacked at Oregon.
“Herbert’s receivers in 2018 and ’19 were not outstanding,” said former Dallas Cowboys talent man Gil Brandt, who rated Herbert the draft’s No. 2 quarterback (after LSU alum Joe Burrow, the draft’s first selection) and the fourth-best prospect overall. Brandt deemed Herbert “very smart.”
Oregon had Herbert take all of his snaps in the shotgun formation.
The offense’s staples were quick screens to the flats and shots to open receivers downfield.
Defenses had to respect Herbert’s 4.68 speed in the 40-yard dash, and that opened up run and pass lanes. Herbert completed 69% of his play-action passes and 64% overall.
The risk lies in projecting Herbert’s ability to pinpoint passes and throw the anticipation passes that, at some point, are essential for high-level NFL success.
There’s some stiffness to Herbert’s game, that may or may not get worked out.
“There’s nothing really natural about him as a player,” NFL Media draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said of Herbert, in a March 26 interview with Fox Sports.
Jeremiah, who played quarterback for Christian High in El Cajon and Appalachian State, said Herbert “is not at his best” at adjusting to the pass rush and resetting, or the more “natural” and “instinctive” aspects of quarterbacking.
While the analyst said Herbert “has a chance to be successful” in a play-action offense, helping him to know to where the ball must go, he also said there’s ample room for growth.
“There’s just not a lot of fluidity or reactive excellence to the way he plays the game,” Jeremiah said.
Jeremiah, who is a radio analyst for Chargers games, has said he believed the team regarded Tua Tagovailoa as its top choice.
The Miami Dolphins took Tagovailoa with the previous pick, No. 5. And, Rivers helped make that possible.
Against the Dolphins last season, Rivers turned in his best performance of 2019 to lead the Chargers to a 30-10 victory.
The Chargers and Dolphins ended up with the same record, at 5-11, but the draft tiebreaker gave the Dolphins the higher draft slot.
Herbert would seem less likely than Tagovailoa to bust as a failed pick, if only because he was far more durable than the Alabama QB, who had at least four surgeries during his three-year college career. Tagovailoa was the more accurate and accomplished passer.
Until he selected Herbert, Chargers GM Tom Telesco hadn’t drafted a quarterback in the first four rounds. Over the past 13 drafts — or since Rivers had completed his first year as the starter — the Chargers were the only NFL club not to select a quarterback in the top four rounds.
Rivers missed no starts in his tenure. Since Telesco and John Spanos took over Chargers football operations in January 2013, the quarterback missed no important snaps and led the franchise to playoff berths in 2013 and 2018. But the combination of Telesco-Spanos-Rivers produced no AFC West titles in the seven years.
The next chapter includes not only Herbert but coach Anthony Lynn. While he presided over the final three years of the Rivers Era, Lynn inherited the veteran quarterback. Lynn, a former NFL running back, is known to like mobile quarterbacks. Now he has a few of them including Easton Stick, a fifth-round draftee in 2019. Taylor, with his fourth club, seems likely to reprise his 2018 role as a stop-gap starter and mentor with the Browns. In ’18, his understudy was rookie Baker Mayfield, the No. 1 pick that year.
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