Oh Jameis, you clever rascal.
Even on your way out the door, even when Tampa Bay is all abuzz over Tom Brady, you’ve managed to give the Buccaneers another case of collective heartburn. A tip of the hat to you, sir.
If reports are true that Jameis Winston will sign with the New Orleans Saints, it is simultaneously the best thing he could have done for himself and the worst thing he could have done to Tampa Bay.
And this is the guy who supposedly makes poor decisions?
With this calculated choice to take a step backward for 2020, Winston has accomplished two things:
1. He has set himself up with a successful franchise where he can refine his skills under a Super Bowl-winning coach, and potentially emerge as the successor to a 41-year-old Hall of Fame quarterback.
2. He has ramped up the pressure on Tampa Bay in 2020.
Think about it for a minute. What is the worst-case scenario for the Bucs? It’s not just the Tom Brady gamble blowing up. It’s the Brady gamble blowing up, and Winston becoming a star somewhere else.
The Bucs knew they were taking a risk by allowing another young quarterback to leave town. Steve Young was 25 when he was traded. Doug Williams and Trent Dilfer were both 27 when they left. Winston is 26.
Now, I’m sure if you ask general manager Jason Licht and head coach Bruce Arians to make the choice again today between Brady and Winston, they will choose Brady 98 out of 100 times. But yesterday, it might have been 99 out of 100.
Because now there is a tiny voice that keeps grumbling in the back of your mind. Yes, Winston had five years to prove himself in Tampa Bay. Yes, he throws interceptions at a rate that is intolerable in today’s NFL. Yes, it was hard to depend on him.
But what if he can be fixed?
That’s one of the things that drew Arians to Tampa Bay in the first place. Arians is, after all, the quarterback whisperer. But what if Saints coach Sean Payton whispers something different?
Winston has size, skill, heart and a tremendous work ethic. His one drawback in a uniform was an inability to cut down on errant passes. That, as it turns out, is what New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees excels at. Winston had 30 interceptions in 626 pass attempts last year. Brees has 29 interceptions in his last 1,900 pass attempts going back nearly four full seasons.
Of course, it’s possible that Winston never sees meaningful playing time in the Superdome. While Brees may be getting older and less mobile, he has started 216 of a possible 224 games in New Orleans. Other than his thumb injury last year, durability has not been a problem.
So would Winston be willing to sit on the bench beyond 2020? It’s a tough call, but Teddy Bridgewater spent two seasons as Brees’ understudy and turned that into a three-year, $63 million deal with Carolina. Winston is about 10 months older than Bridgewater was when he went to New Orleans, so that timeline isn’t far off.
But more than anything, Winston gets a chance to reinvent himself in a more controlled environment. He might have been able to compete for a starting job in other places, but he would have run the risk of damaging his stock with a less stable franchise and coach. Even if things don’t work out perfectly with the Saints, he will still be better for the experience.
As for the Bucs? There is one way for this to work in Tampa Bay, and it has nothing to do with Winston.
The Bucs have to win right away. Not just in the regular season, but into January. Do they have to win the Super Bowl? Perhaps. Do they need to reach the NFC Championship Game? I can’t imagine fans being happy with less than that.
Signing Brady has guaranteed Tampa Bay will have an uncertain future at quarterback beyond 2021, and maybe even before then. So winning immediately is a necessity.
Otherwise, it’s going to be difficult not to look toward New Orleans and wonder what might have been.
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