If not for the coronavirus pandemic indefinitely suspending the NBA’s season, the Mavericks likely would’ve played their first playoff series since 2016 this week.
It’s not yet clear when the NBA will resume operation, so the Mavericks’ young core could still gain postseason experience in 2020.
With that in mind, The Dallas Morning News is evaluating five criteria that will make the Mavericks NBA championship contenders in years to come.
So far, we’ve discussed the necessity of Jalen Brunson and Dwight Powell returning healthy to offer Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis flexibility; an accelerated learning curve to better finish games and rank among the West’s elite; success in the 2020 and 2021 free agency periods; and a strong first round in the 2020 draft.
Last up: Age, timing and perhaps some luck with other teams’ moves.
Aside from pursuing free agents and luring them to Dallas, the Mavericks have little control over what decisions teams, especially in the current Western Conference playoff picture, will make in the coming years.
But turnover at the top of the NBA appears inevitable — and on pace with the Mavericks’ potential championship timeline.
Take, for example, the average age of this year’s 13 Western Conference All-Star selections: 27.3 years old, including Luka Doncic, who’s now 21.
In six years, by the time Doncic reaches that average age mark, 41-year-old LeBron James will be retired. So might Houston’s 36-year-old James Harden and 37-year-old Russell Westbrook. Kawhi Leonard and Damian Lillard will be in their mid-30s, too.
Doncic, at 27 years old, the same age at which Leonard powered his second NBA Finals MVP campaign, should be in his prime.
Or trim the forecast to four years from now, in 2024, when most of the players above — plus Warriors stars Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green — have aged past the NBA’s typical dominant years.
Doncic will be 25 years old and Kristaps Porzingis will be 28.
Then, Dallas’ toughest competition in the West may come from Denver, New Orleans or Memphis.
The shift has already started and could increase come 2021.
Before injury decimation this season, the Warriors’ dynastic run appeared to weaken when Kevin Durant left the team — and the conference — to join the Nets in the East. With Lakers duo James and Anthony Davis and Clippers duo Leonard and Paul George all set to become free agents in the 2021 offseason, the West landscape could transform even further.
Should Giannis Antetokounmpo remain in Milwaukee, or the Eastern Conference, when he signs a max contract before or during 2021 free agency, the Mavericks would also avoid hurdle of facing the reigning NBA MVP in pre-championship playoff series.
Unless, of course, they can sign him in Dallas.
The display of player empowerment throughout the 2019 offseason offered unprecedented movement throughout the league and was perhaps a foreshadowing of free agency periods to come.
While the Mavericks have little ability to influence opposing transactions, they may have already achieved the most important step in pursuing trophies this decade: establishing a promising foundation with Doncic and Kristaps to capitalize on the West’s looming turnover.
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