TAMPA, Fla. — Masahiro Tanaka was having a strong spring training. He struck out 11 hitters over 8.2 innings without issuing a walk and was feeling good after having bone spurs removed in the offseason. The right-hander had thrown 3.2 scoreless innings on Sunday March 8, that was the last time Yankees fans got to see him before the global coronavirus pandemic shut down baseball and most of the rest of the world.
Will it be the last time that we see Tanaka in a Yankees uniform? Hopefully not. MLB is working with public health officials, players, umpires and broadcast partners to try and get some sort of baseball season in 2020, but this is the final year of Tanaka’s seven-year deal with the Yankees whether they play or not. Under the most unusual of circumstances, the Yankees will have to make decisions on players like Tanaka who are scheduled to be a free agent in the winter of 2020. Lefthander James Paxton, coming off February back surgery, and J.A. Happ, the veteran lefty who was trying to turn around after a career-worst season in 2019 will also be free agents that the Yankees have to make decisions about.
With Tanaka, who will turn 32 in November, there is plenty to discuss.
A young star in his native Japan when he made the transition to the MLB, Tanaka came out strong. In his first 20 games in MLB, he went 13-5 with a 2.77 ERA, earning a spot on the All-Star team. It also cost him a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament.
After choosing to rehab the elbow rather than have Tommy John surgery, Tanaka never again showed such a dominant streak. Instead, he earned a hard-fought reputation as a “big-game pitcher.” He’s become the pitcher that Yankees fans have trusted the most in the playoffs over the years, with good reason. In eight playoff games, 46 career postseason innings, Tanaka has a 1.76 ERA. He’s allowed just nine earned runs, striking out 37 and walking just 11.
For a team that is desperate to end a decade-long World Series drought, that is certainly a compelling case to give Tanaka a two or three year deal.
That in part is what is so compelling about Tanaka, he has evolved as a pitcher. When he compromised his UCL, he found a way to get hitters out. In 2019, when the changed baseball was not conducive to Tanaka throwing his signature splitter, he adapted.
At 32 with a UCL that was never surgically repaired and with his regular-season ERA moving up towards five the last few seasons, there are some questions that the Yankees will have to answer.
There are, however, other options for the Yankees.
With Luis Severino having Tommy John surgery in February and Paxton not expected back until mid-May, the Yankees were already looking at their stockpiles of arms when baseball was shut down. Severino should be back at some point in 2021 and left-hander Jordan Montgomery, who was returning from 2018 Tommy John surgery, was impressive this spring and earned his way into the rotation.
While the Yankees seem eternally hopeful that Jonathan Loaisiga will eventually blossom into a major league starter, they had other young arms starting to blossom behind him. Deivi Garcia jumped all the way up to Triple-A last season. Clarke Schmidt was impressive this spring while Mike King and Albert Abreu are pressing forward as well.
Even after signing Cole to a record-setting nine-year $324 million deal this winter, the Yankees will have some payroll room next winter to look outside the organization as well.
Trevor Bauer, Robbie Ray, Mike Minor, Marcus Stroman, Jake Odorizzi will headline the free agent class along with Paxton and Tanaka. The Yankees have shown interest in Ray and Minor in the trade market before and were linked to Stroman, though Yankees GM Brian Cashman seemed to downplay that last fall.
And Cashman could also try to rebuild his rotation on that trade market as well. Cleveland could look to move Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco, the Tigers may finally pull the trigger on a deal for Matthew Boyd and the Royals will likely be interested to hear offers on Danny Duffy.
The Yankees 2021 rotation will be different. The Yankees, however, could re-sign Tanaka for a reliable, familiar face — particularly in the playoffs.
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