What could go wrong?
Well, the primary catcher could get hit in the nose by a pitch and one of the “First Four” could get shut down with soreness in his oblique on the same afternoon less than two weeks before opening day.
One of the top two starting pitchers could drop a 35-pound weight on his big toe.
That Austin Nola, Juan Soto and Joe Musgrove are all dealing with injuries is not cause for panic. Even if they all missed opening day, opening week or opening month — which no one is saying will happen — the season would not be sunk.
But their maladies do underscore the precarious nature of the Padres’ perch as a World Series contender.
Even without the high-profile spring injuries, there existed the possibility that the unprecedented buildup to this Padres season could twist and turn and end in a massive letdown.
To be clear, the Padres are almost certainly destined to be a playoff team, given the strength of their lineup and the relative shallow pool of top-tier teams in the National League. And they seem to have assembled a roster with the ability to advance deep into the postseason and even win the organization’s first championship.
But this is baseball. Stuff happens.
The season is long, the variables are great and the margin between winning and losing is narrow.
There are several things that could go awry.
Injuries
One of the heroes of the Padres’ run to the 2022 NL Championship Series was good health. Just as the year before, an atmospheric river of injuries contributed to one of the worst collapses in baseball history.
Yes, new manager Bob Melvin steadied the undercurrent of discontent that roiled in 2021. Manny Machado was better for longer. Nick Martinez was a super hybrid pitcher. The first 10 games of MacKenzie Gore’s career were as good as expected. Jorge Alfaro decided five victories in those games’ final plate appearance.
More batters came through with big hits in more situations. More pitchers got big outs in more crucial games.
And more of them were able to.
Even with Fernando Tatis Jr. missing the entirety of 2022 due to a wrist injury and suspension and Drew Pomeranz missing all season while recovering from flexor tendon surgery, the Padres ranked 18th in the major leagues with 1,315 days lost to the injured list.
Conversely, just one season earlier provides a clear picture of what can happen when the injury bug bites.
In 2021, the Padres were coming off a playoff berth and had excited San Diego with a number of offseason moves. They led the NL West for 10 days at the end of May and held a playoff berth virtually every day into September.
They had an overmatched manager and some clubhouse dissension. But they had no chance to overcome any of it because injury after injury to starting pitchers had left their bullpen weary and their rotation in tatters, relying on leftovers Jake Arrieta and Vince Velasquez as they limped to the end.
The Padres lost more days to the IL (2,581) than anyone else that season, according to spotrac.
Rotation equation
Does it add up?
Injuries aside, the main question about the Padres’ starting rotation revolved around how many innings it could realistically be expected to provide.
With Musgrove expected to miss at least one start and Yu Darvish possibly not being built up to where he normally would be, it seems the rotation will begin under water.
It appears Pomeranz will not be pushed to be ready for the start of the season. That likely means the Padres will stack their bullpen with two additional long relievers who can give them multiple innings at a time.
An early-innings deficit can be overcome. They will almost certainly go to a six-man rotation when Musgrove returns, provided the other five starting pitchers are healthy. There is plenty of time to catch up.
But these complications at the start don’t set up well for the Padres to repeat last year’s nearly perfect balance in which their starting pitchers’ 901 innings were fourth most in the major leagues, the highest the team had ever ranked in that category. That workload allowed the bullpen to be its freshest (and most effective) at season’s end and in the postseason.
Catcher(s)
How capable Luis Campusano is of handling the Padres’ pitching staff depends on who is asked.
Some in the organization would welcome him being thrust into the role of starting the majority of the team’s games. He has been among the team’s top prospects since he was drafted in the second round in 2017.
Plenty of others say he loses focus in games and is still trying to hone the communication skills necessary to command his important position.
We might be about to find out who is right.
While pitchers say all the right things publicly about the 24-year-old Campusano and his progress, the fact is most prefer to have Nola behind the plate when they are on the mound.
Will they rally around whoever their catcher is and make the most of whatever situation? Sure, most of them will.
Is that the scenario a World Series contender wants to face? There are plenty of people in uniform who believe Nola is among the players the Padres can least afford to lose for an extended time.
If the pitch that hit Nola in the nose on Sunday keeps him out an extended time, the Padres figure to go with Campusano and Pedro Severino, a journeyman who has shown solid defensive skills. Brett Sullivan, who missed a portion of camp while playing for Italy in the World Baseball Classic, could get some consideration in the final days leading up to March 30.
Even if Nola is good to start the season, catcher depth remains a concern to many in the organization.
Father Time
The First Four — as Bob Melvin has referred to Soto, Tatis, Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado, who are expected to bat in the first four spots in the order most games — comprise just the top of the lineup.
Others will have to hit. And among those who are being counted on are the players acquired to comprise a platoon at designated hitter.
The signing of 42-year-old Nelson Cruz was a $1 million flier. If his offseason eye surgery isn’t the panacea everyone hopes and he is no better than the 90 OPS player he was in 2022, the cost will have been minimal. The potential upside is tremendous, as Cruz hit 32 home runs in 2021.
A more significant investment was in 37-year-old Matt Carpenter, who resurrected his career by amassing a 1.138 OPS in 154 plate appearances with the Yankees last season. The Padres signed him to a two-year, $12 million contract with the expectation he would be their primary DH.
There is no way to tell if the pair’s underwhelming results in spring portend something ominous, but their production remain uncertain.
And that is all any of this is — a look at the uncertainty and a reminder that a single game has yet to be played and there remain six months of challenges to navigate.