Gov. Ron DeSantis made a deadly gamble in delaying a statewide stay-at-home order for weeks, a decision that could cause many more Floridians to die of COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.
The governor finally imposed a statewide stay-at-home order, which took effect on Thursday at midnight, after talking to President Donald Trump. But he also overrode more-restrictive orders imposed by many cities and counties, including those in South Florida’s hotspot.
DeSantis’s ninth-inning orders are another example of how Florida’s governor is leading from behind on the pandemic, trailing the lead of the White House and others, and causing concern and confusion at the local level.
Evidence of DeSantis’ risky wager appears in the statistical model that the president’s Coronavirus Task Force highlighted in announcing that 100,000 to 240,000 Americans will likely die from COVID-19 — and that’s if “full mitigation” measures are taken.
We learned of Florida’s alarming forecast while talking to Ali Mokdad, a professor at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. IHME created the model the White House lauded. It uses past experiences, including from China and Italy, to predict the future. Its information comes from hospital groups, state governments, the federal government and the World Health Organization.
The IHME model projects that Florida, a state with about 21 million people, will see many more deaths than California, a state with about 40 million people.
By Aug. 4, the model predicts that 6,897 Floridians will die of COVID-19, compared to 5,161 Californians.
In other words, California, a state with roughly twice as many people, will see three-quarters the number of deaths as Florida.
Why?
Because California ordered all nonessential businesses to close — and people of all ages to stay home — starting March 19, says Mokdad, a former top official with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
While California was one of the first states to bite the bullet, he said, Florida “delayed their response.”
On Monday night, Mokdad spoke to Florida Surgeon General Scott Rivkees about the importance of a statewide stay-home order. Rivkees, he said, explained that Florida’s strategy was to encourage social distancing, limit gatherings to no more than 10 people and order people over 65, as well as those with preexisting conditions, to stay home.
Florida also has ordered people arriving from the tristate New York hotspot to self-quarantine for 14 days. Despite concerns raised elsewhere in Florida, however, DeSantis plans no in-state travel restrictions on those who may seek to escape the South Florida hotspot.
“I told him if would be better if they tell people (statewide) to stay home,” Mokdad said. “The messaging at this time is really important.”
However, like President Trump and Florida’s major business organizations, DeSantis worried about the economic impact of a statewide lockdown, noting that the state received “15 to 20,000 unemployment claims a day” last week. For charting a different course that drew “liberal ire,” the Wall Street Journal editorial board recently gave DeSantis star status.
Also like the president, DeSantis said he worried about the social impact of a shelter-in-place order. “I’m worried about drug abuse,” he said last week. “I’m worried about suicides. I’m worried about domestic violence and I’m worried about child abuse. In any situation like that, all that stuff goes up.”
But after the White House decided to extend social distancing guidelines through April, DeSantis announced Wednesday that through April, he would limit activities statewide to a long list of essential services.
Five hours later, however, without fanfare, he signed a second order that overrules the power of cities and counties to, among other things, close beaches, shutter golf courses or ban large religious gatherings. It happened after the pastor of a Hillsborough County megachurch was arrested for defying a local order on large gatherings.
“I don’t think the government has the authority to close the church, I’m certainly not going to do that,” DeSantis said Thursday. “There’s no reason why you couldn’t do a church service with people 10 feet apart.”
Who’s going to enforce that? What happens when people get up to leave? Why take the risk?
Fortunately, the leaders of mainstream churches and synagogues are leading from the front.
As the Orlando Sentinel and South Florida Sun Sentinel reported, Thomas Wenski, the Archbishop of Miami, told his priests not to conduct any in-person services, except for approved hospital visits, for two weeks. “It is not prudent for parishes to plan any activity that would encourage people to leave their homes,” he said.
John Stemberger, president of the conservative Florida Family Policy Council, said he wasn’t aware of any faith leaders still planning to meet in person. “The vast majority of them get it.”
Jewish leaders express similar concern about the governor’s mixed messages. “I am gravely concerned with the exemption for religious organizations,” Rabbi Efrem Goldberg of Boca Raton Synagogue, an Orthodox synagogue.
“We should be at the forefront of putting safety, health and well-being above all else. This isn’t an issue of religious freedom. It is one of our very survival.”
From his lips to DeSantis’ ears.
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©2020 Sun Sentinel (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.)
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