Happy days are here again! Nearly all fantasy drafts will take place this weekend. It’s always smart to draft after the preseason games are done. It wasn’t long ago we lost Jamal Lewis, Tony Romo and Chad Pennington for all or part of an NFL season due to injuries in meaningless games. The following is a list of players to avoid followed by a short list of players I want in every draft.
DO NOT DRAFT
Desmond Ridder, QB
Volume is key in fantasy, and the Falcons are no passing fancy. They attempted the second-fewest passes in 2022 with 415. The Texans, Dolphins and Raiders threw over 579 times. That’s 165 fewer chances for Ridder to succeed. It’s a team mindset you can’t ignore. Even when blown out by the Bengals in Week 7 (35-17), they only attempted 13 passes. Falcons HC Arthur Smith is a stubborn supporter of the running game come hell or high water … or lopsided losses.
Jonathan Taylor, RB
The nonsense in Indianapolis regarding the NFL’s best running back is a joke. Given permission to seek a trade, Taylor was looking for a team that would meet his contract demands and the compensation demands of owner Jim Irsay, who publicly stated the NFL running back is no longer worth a premium salary. Yet he wanted multiple first-rounders in return for Taylor. Unable to force a trade by Irsay’s Aug. 29 deadline, the Colts unceremoniously dumped Taylor on the PUP list, meaning he cannot take the field until Week 5. Stay away from Taylor in the first 10 rounds. Those picks are too precious to waste on this sideshow.
Jerry Jeudy, WR
Jeudy was on my list of “must have” WRs this year. He ended the 2022 season with a bang, catching 33 balls for 458 yards and three TDs in his last five games. Unfortunately, Jeudy had a serious hamstring injury in practice last week. Some players can limp off the field under their own power. Jeudy needed a cart, an ominous sign. The news out of Denver says Jeudy will miss “a few games,” but that’s a few too many to pull the trigger in anything earlier than Round 8.
Arizona Cardinals
Keep your eye on these birdies because the Cardinals are a mess. HC Jonathan Gannon won’t name a starting QB. He thinks it will give his team a “competitive advantage” over their Week 1opponent (the Commanders). Brave words from a coach projected to have just 3.5 wins this year. With journeymen QBs Josh Dobbs or fifth-round rookie Clayton Tune getting the start, no defense will respect the Cards’ offense. They will blitz, blitz and blitz some more. Forget about drafting Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, Zach Ertz and James Conner.
FANTASY MUST-HAVES
Dak Prescott, QB
Here’s some fun facts about Dallas’ favorite son: His real name is Dakota. His pre-game meal is hash browns with pasta. He has tattoos of Muhammad Ali, Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant. He threw at least three TDs in five of his last meaningful 10 games, and the Cowboys scored 24 points or more in all of them. Still, Dak is falling in drafts, going most often in Round 10 or 11. It’s a scenario to take advantage of. Fill out your starting roster and draft Dak as a late-round steal. Grab a hash brown and enjoy the show.
Tank Bigsby, RB
Who doesn’t want an RB named Tank? The third-rounder out of Auburn ran like a tank in his first NFL preseason. He averaged an impressive 5.7 yards per carry, good enough for 159 yards over the last three weeks. Here’s what head coach Doug Pederson had to say: “Outside of the size, speed, athleticism, and all that, this kid is a sponge. He’s really a smart, young running back.” Grab Bigsby in the 12th round, especially if you drafted Travis Etienne. He is one of the better RB handcuffs this year. You’ll “tank” me later.
Diontae Johnson, WR
Johnson had the 13th-most catches for a WR in the NFL last year. He had 86 receptions for 882 yards … and no TDs! That TD donut was what separated him from the elite WRs, placing him 30th overall. If Diontae pulled in just five TDs, he would have finished as WR 22, which jettisons him past the likes of D.J. Moore and Chris Olave. Currently you can draft Diontae in the sixth round. Not bad for a potential top-20 wideout.
Jake Ferguson, TE
The Cowboys love to use their TEs. Dallas has produced a top-10 fantasy TE for three years straight. A fourth-round pick out of Wisconsin last year, Big Jake acquitted himself well as a rookie, catching 19 balls for 174 yards and two TDs. QB Dak Prescott recently anointed Fergy as “a big-time player in this league.” Swipe him in the 16th round (like I did in my draft) when everyone else is taking a kicker or a defense. Congrats. You just got the steal of the draft.