SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Gov. Gavin Newsom is pulling out all the stops to paint the people trying to recall him as conservative Republicans.
He’s run ads on Facebook that say the effort is all about “riling up that Trump base.”
He’s emailing donors saying “anti-maskers, anti-vaxxers, and notably, some of Trump’s biggest donors” are pushing the recall.
He’s sending supporters bumper stickers that say “Stop the Republican Recall,” the official name of his campaign.
Although some Democrats and independents do support a recall, Newsom’s frame is based in truth — the effort is run and funded mostly by Republicans, and Republicans provided most of the signatures to qualify the measure for the ballot. Experts say Newsom’s messaging might alienate some Democrats and independents on the fence about removing him from office. But they also say it’s his best chance to defeat the recall in a largely blue state.
“It’s a smart tactic to define it that way,” said Steve Maviglio, a Democratic strategist who worked for former Gov. Gray Davis when he was recalled in 2003. “That’s the most effective way of shooting this down.”
The recall movement’s most visible leaders are conservative. So are most of its biggest donors. Major GOP groups including the Republican Governors Association and prominent national Republicans including former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich are backing the movement.
According to recall proponents, about two-thirds of people who signed the recall petition are Republicans.
“If you look at literally who’s behind it and where the money’s coming from, it’s legit,” Maviglio said of Democrats’ effort to brand the recall as Republican. “That said, a lot of Democrats signed that petition.”
San Diego-based Republican political consultant Jennifer Jacobs said she thinks support for the recall goes beyond politics.
Jacobs, who helped collect signatures as a volunteer, said the signature numbers are likely skewed because the campaign targeted Republicans first. Had the campaign directly reached out to more Democrats and independents, she said, more of them may have signed, too.
“It screams desperation,” Jacobs said of the Republican recall branding. “I think they’ve lost touch with the working people of this state that they’ve taken for granted for a long time… They are being dismissive of all those other people.”
Randy Economy, an adviser to the recall, said Newsom’s branding discounts all the Democrats and independents who have signed.
“We keep saying this is not a Republican recall, this is a group of concerned citizens,” he said. “This is bigger than politics.”
Newsom and his anti-recall campaign have repeatedly pointed to extreme views expressed by recall supporters, including Holocaust imagery used at recall rallies and one organizer’s suggestion that undocumented immigrants be microchipped.
At a recent news conference in Santa Ana, Newsom said he has “deep respect” for some of the people who signed the petition who are frustrated with their lives during the pandemic. But he doubled down on his argument that the organizers have extreme conservative views.
“You’ve got to know where the origins of this thing lie,” he said. “I just think people should learn more about that when they consider what this effort is really about.”
Polling indicates recall support does fall along political lines. A survey conducted in March by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California found 79% of likely Republican voters support recalling Newsom, while just 15% of likely Democratic voters do.
That’s sobering news for recall supporters in a state where Democrats have an overwhelming voter registration advantage. Democrats represent 46% of registered California voters, while Republicans and independents make up roughly 24% each.
Defining the recall as Republican could push the state’s sizable Democratic population to vote against it.
“When you force a voter to make a political decision, it puts Democrats at an extreme advantage,” said Mike Madrid, a Sacramento-based Republican strategist who campaigned against Donald Trump in 2020.
It also discourages other Democrats from jumping into the race, experts say.
Right now, all of the prominent candidates running to replace Newsom are Republicans. If a well-known Democrat jumps in, that could convince some Democratic voters to vote for the recall.
That’s what happened in 2003, said Democratic strategist Garry South, who worked for Davis at the time.
South said that when then-Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante entered the race, some Democrats who didn’t like Davis but also didn’t want a Republican governor ended up voting for the recall, which helped ensure Davis’ defeat. Ultimately, Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger replaced Davis as governor, the only time in California history a governor has been recalled.
“Arnold was the biggest problem for Davis,” South said. “But the second biggest problem, and it was pretty close, was Bustamante.”
Keeping a Democrat like Bustamante out of the race is key to Newsom defeating the recall, political experts say, and branding the recall as Republican is a good way to do that. The unique structure of the recall makes it a tempting opportunity for politicians.
The recall has not yet officially qualified for the ballot, but experts on both sides expect it to. If it does qualify, voters will be asked to decide two questions at once: 1) should Newsom be removed from office and 2) if he’s removed, who should replace him?
It’s relatively easy for a candidate to put their own name on the ballot as a potential replacement. In 2003, 135 candidates ran to replace Gray Davis.
That makes it a tempting option for a Democrat who sees Newsom as vulnerable and wants to court the state’s liberal voters. It’s a big risk however, because losing could carry heavy penalties for a Democrat who goes against the party, which is currently backing Newsom.
“At this moment I don’t think it’s likely, but I think every Democrat in California is taking a good strong look at it, as they should be,” Madrid said. “Anyone who’s saying they’re not is lying.”
If the recall were held today, polls show it would fail. The Public Policy Institute of California found just 40% of likely voters would vote to recall Newsom, while 56% would vote to keep him as governor. A poll conducted by Probolsky Research also found 40% of voters would support a recall, while 46% would oppose it.
Polls also show that Newsom’s job approval rating is more positive than negative, which wasn’t the case for Gray Davis at this point in 2003. In the Public Policy Institute of California poll, 53% of likely voters said they approved of the job Newsom is doing as governor, while 42% disapprove.
“The numbers he’s showing in terms of job approval and the lack of real heavy support for the recall are a disincentive for a major Democrat to get into the race,” South said. “If Democrats stick with Newsom, he’ll beat this recall pretty handily.”
But a recall election likely wouldn’t be held until the fall, when Newsom’s approval ratings — and the list of replacement challengers — could be very different.
“It really is a lifetime away,” Maviglio said. “Anything can happen between now and then.”