TAMPA, Fla. — Here’s the truth about the Bucs team Tom Brady will quarterback this season: it is below average but improving.
The Bucs don’t have the most talented roster in the NFC South. That belongs to the New Orleans Saints. They’re certainly not the favorite to win the conference or reach Super Bowl 55 in Tampa.
At 42 — 43 in August — Brady still may be one of the NFL’s best passers. He’s clearly among the best leaders.
“He makes everyone better that walks into that huddle,” coach Bruce Arians said.
But Brady is not a miracle worker. He can’t block a guy off the edge at right tackle. He can’t split out from the running back position and catch passes. He can’t stretch the field vertically like a speed receiver. And he certainly can’t make a defense, anchored by 30-something-year-old players, suddenly younger.
In other words, the Bucs probably aren’t as good as Brady thinks they are. And with or without Brady, chances are they’re not as good as you believe they will be in 2020, either.
But Brady doesn’t have any time to waste. That’s why it’s hard to remember an NFL draft as important as this one for the Bucs. Every decision that general manager Jason Licht and Arians make, starting Thursday night, must carry a “win now at all costs” sense of urgency.
Of course, the Bucs don’t want to mortgage too sizable a chunk of their future in terms of players or future draft picks. Brady signed a two-year, $50 million contract. If things go perfectly, maybe they squeeze out a third year in 2022.
There are plenty of good pieces on this football team. A pair of 1,000-yard receivers. Two tight ends capable of being big red-zone targets. The league’s best run defense that grew up a lot in the secondary.
“There were a lot of things that were intriguing to me about the organization,” Brady said. “The players and the coaches and the willingness of everyone to try and accomplish what the goal of playing football is, which is to win.”
But Brady has a skill set and a way of attacking defenses that will require the Bucs’ front office and scouting department to be at the top of their game to build around the six-time Super Bowl champion.
At minimum, the Bucs will need to acquire at least three key offensive players in the draft in order for Brady to operate at the level he is accustomed to: a plug-and-play, pass-protecting starting right tackle; a three-down running back who can split out as a receiver; a third receiver with straight-line speed capable of striking fear into a defense as a legitimate deep threat.
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The Bucs own the No. 14 overall pick. In order to secure one of the top four tackles available, they may have to package picks or players to move up into the top 10. There have been reports that the Bucs are dangling tight end O.J. Howard as trade bait.
Tampa Bay did not re-sign free-agent tackle Demar Dotson. They signed Colts backup offensive lineman Joe Haeg, mostly for depth.
The Bucs would be thrilled to select Alabama’s Jedrick Wills Jr., Louisville’s Mekhi Becton, Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs or Georgia’s Andrew Thomas at No. 14. But they probably can’t afford to wait.
Two years ago, the Bucs owned the No. 7 overall pick and needed help on the offensive and defensive lines.
What happened? Edge rusher Bradley Chubb went to Denver at No. 5 and guard Quinton Nelson was selected by the Colts at No. 6. The Bucs wound up trading down to No. 12 to select defensive tackle Vita Vea. Good player, but not in the same category. Chubb had 12 sacks as a rookie; Nelson is a two-time All-Pro.
“I thought Donovan (Smith) got a lot better,” Arians said of his offensive tackle. “I think he’ll get even more intense with Tom back there at quarterback than he has been, but he did play extremely well last year. I think he made the most improvement of the things we asked him to do than anybody up front. Ali (Marpet) is solid. Ryan (Jensen) had a heck of a year. (Alex) Cappa, I thought, had a fantastic year for a young guy. Played with a broken arm. Got better and better. Joe Haeg was a solid right tackle.
We’ll see what happens in the draft. I don’t see it as a glaring need, but you’re always looking to upgrade somewhere.”
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If the Bucs plan to move up, they can’t do it by using this year’s second-round pick as currency. That’s where there will be a run on a deep group of three-down running backs, which may include Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor, LSU’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Georgia’s D’Andre Swift, Ohio State’s J.K. Dobbins and Florida State’s Cam Akers.
Ronald Jones returns as the Bucs’ starting tailback, having redeemed himself from a useless rookie year to rush for 724 yards and six touchdowns. He showed some ability in the screen game with 31 catches for 309 yards. But he’s not a good pass protector and you’re not going to run the route tree with him.
How important is a receiver out of the backfield to Brady? In his 19 seasons as a starter, Patriots running backs combined to catch 1,420 passes, an average of 74 per year. In fact, in the past five seasons, Brady averaged 107 completions to running backs.
James Wilder is the Bucs’ all-time leading pass catcher at running back and he averaged only 3.4 receptions per game.
“Just using backs out of the backfield as wide receivers, as primary receivers, that’s not (Jones’) deal,” Arians said. “Hopefully, we can find somebody like that who can compete with Dare (Ogunbowale) on third down and become more of wide receiver threat.”
As good as Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are, they don’t frequently threaten teams with their speed. Breshad Perriman signed as a free agent with the Jets, leaving a void for a No. 3 receiver. Fortunately, the draft is loaded at this position. In fact, should the Bucs be unable to fulfill their needs at tackle or on the defensive line in the first round — and if running back would be a reach — don’t be surprised if they nab one of Alabama’s receivers, Henry Ruggs or Jerry Jeudy.
Both Evans and Godwin failed to finish 2019 due to hamstring injuries while Scotty Miller and Justin Watson have combined for 29 career receptions, so depth is needed.
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What about the defense? Certainly, Brady’s ability to protect the football will help. He has averaged 9.4 interceptions a year since becoming a starter. Quarterback Jameis Winston allowed 112 points off his turnovers alone in 2019.
The Bucs used a franchise tag on linebacker Shaquil Barrett, 27, who led the NFL in sacks with 19.5. It is unlikely he’ll replicate that feat. Jason Pierre-Paul (31) and Ndamukong Suh (33) re-signed for 2020. Pierre-Paul tallied 8.5 sacks in 10 games, but had fresh legs after missing the first six games while recovering from a neck fracture and still barely practiced the last month.
Suh had 10 hurries, 10 quarterback hits and 2.5 sacks last season. He played 77% of the snaps, the fewest in his career. Maybe the Bucs will get a productive year out of both Suh and JPP, but there’s no depth behind them.
While the young secondary grew up, the Bucs could use a safety, especially since Justin Evans still isn’t cleared to play after multiple foot and ankle surgeries.
The Bucs were 7-7 last season before too many turnovers cost them wins over Tennessee and Atlanta at home. Finishing 7-9 will not be good enough to earn a spot in a 14-team expanded postseason.
The Bucs will be better with Brady. But a playoff team? An NFC South champion? A Super Bowl contender?
They need to strike gold, multiple times, in this draft.
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