For those who remain in breathless anticipation to learn the Bears’ official decision on the fifth-year option in Mitch Trubisky’s rookie contract, we suggest wrapping your brain around the one detail that matters most. The number 24.8. As in million. As in dollars.
As in that’s the Year 5 price tag if the Bears decide they absolutely couldn’t live without Trubisky beyond this season.
Read that again.
The deadline is next Monday for filing the yes-or-no fifth-year option decision with the league office. To this point, the Bears have made a strategic decision to keep those plans private.
But why on God’s green earth would general manager Ryan Pace check the “yes” box? If the Bears have shown reason and good judgment in establishing “an open competition” for the starting quarterback job in 2020 — a clear unwillingness to commit to Trubisky for Week 1 of this season — then why would they offer even a loose pledge for 2021? Especially at that astronomical number.
Really, the question isn’t so much what the Bears will do with Trubisky’s fifth-year option as much as why they have been so reticent to declare their intentions publicly.
Pace has taken a sturdy “no comment” stance on the issue since New Year’s Eve. He was pressed on the matter during the team’s end-of-season news conference, again at the combine, yet again after the first wave of free agency, during his pre-draft session with reporters last week and once more Saturday night.
In each case, Pace dodged the questions as if they were sneeze-filled handshakes.
Ryan, have you come to a conclusion on Mitch’s fifth-year option?
Dec. 31: “We’re not at that point right now, and when we are, we’ll let you guys know.”
Feb. 25: “Everything’s internal as we think through that process and this whole thing comes together. We’ll make that decision in May.”
April 3: “That’s something we’re not going to comment on right now. We’ve got until May to make that comment. We’ll talk about it as we get closer to that date.”
April 21: “Right now our focus is all on the draft. We know we have until May 4 on that, and we’ll cross that bridge once we get through this weekend.”
April 25: “We’re just coming off the draft right now. We’re just decompressing on this final day. We know we have until May 4. There are no updates in that area.”
The sidestep strategy has been somewhat confusing, with Pace proving as elusive as any of his seven draft picks. But, really, why keep asking the question? Why is an official declaration necessary?
Instead, grab a crayon and connect the dots. It’s a play-at-home game.
The price of the fifth-year option for first-round picks is based on position, and the scale is much higher for top-10 selections, who are entitled to the value of the current transition tag at their position. That’s where the $24.8 million comes from for quarterbacks.
Yes, Trubisky’s fifth-year option for 2021 would be guaranteed only for injury. So the Bears could pick it up next week and still wiggle free from any true financial commitment by cutting him before the league year begins next March.
In fact, that’s exactly the path Pace took with Leonard Floyd. After picking up Floyd’s fifth-year option last spring, the Bears yanked that $13.2 million commitment last month before the start of the league year and sent Floyd on his way.
It would be possible to take a similar approach with Trubisky. Sure. Absolutely.
But why?
With the fifth-year option guaranteed for injury, if Trubisky were to suffer a severe injury during the 2020 season, the Bears would be on the hook for all of that $24.8 million. It would immediately become a sunk cost.
The risk-reward just isn’t there.
In what world would a $24.8 million investment in Trubisky for 2021 become a bargain for the Bears?
The truest of the Tru believers would argue that the best of the best-case scenarios is still possible for the developing quarterback. What if Trubisky not only turns a corner in 2020 but becomes a star?
What if he beats out Nick Foles for the starting job, plays at an elite level all year, leads the Bears deep into the postseason and proves he should be the franchise’s long-term answer at quarterback? Wouldn’t the Bears love to have him locked up for 2021 at $24.8 million without risking his departure in free agency?
First, that’s a pretty far-fetched “What if?” dilemma to use as a compass in contract decisions.
The more reasonable optimist might see the possibility Trubisky wins the starting job for 2020, plays at an above-average level and helps the Bears win again. So then what? Without the fifth-year option in their back pocket, the Bears would have to try to negotiate a new deal with Trubisky for 2021 and beyond — something they almost certainly would have to do if he became a star as well.
Through that lens, would the starting point for any negotiation be significantly north of $24.8 million per year? Probably not.
So why not take the reasonable wait-and-see approach and let things play out?
The Chiefs, for the record, are certain to pick up Patrick Mahomes’ $24.8 million option, a mere formality as they work to negotiate a likely record-setting long-term extension. Deshaun Watson’s fifth-year option for about $17 million will be a no-brainer for the Texans as they too ready the Brink’s truck.
Of the 11 quarterbacks drafted in the top 10 between 2011 and 2016, only two didn’t have their fifth-year options granted: Jake Locker of the Titans and Blaine Gabbert of the Jaguars. The Redskins picked up Robert Griffin III’s fifth-year option in 2015 but cut him the following spring before it kicked in.
The Bears have another week to slow-play their official decision on Trubisky’s contract. When it’s finalized, it will create another headline and more chatter. Yet Pace might not have to detail his reasoning publicly for months.
Still, the practical approach for the Bears seems clear. It starts with the number 24.8. As in million. As in dollars.
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