SANTA CLARA, Calif. — The NFL draft is about balancing decisions. How badly does this position need an upgrade? Is that prospect so much better than others that he’s worth taking or should we trade down for more picks? Do we have to address this position now or can it wait until next offseason?
Those are the types of questions all 32 front offices wrestled with last week while confined in their homes, or a mega yacht, in Jerry Jones’ case, for the three-day event.
The 49ers appeared to bring in answers for their most pressing needs despite limited resources. They had no picks in rounds 2, 3, and 4, and just $13 million in cap space. They had a void to fill in place of departed star DeForest Buckner, so they used the No. 13 pick they received from the Colts in the Buckner trade to move down one spot and take South Carolina’s Javon Kinlaw.
They needed another play-making receiver in light of losing Emmanuel Sanders to the Saints in free agency, so they moved up six picks in Round 1 to add Brandon Aiyuk from Arizona State.
And with Joe Staley before the draft letting the team know, in secret, he was retiring, general manager John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan executed a trade for Washington left tackle Trent Williams for a 2021 third-rounder and a fifth-round pick this year, adding a seven-time Pro Bowler who worked with Shanahan previously.
On those fronts, the 49ers appeared to do well maintaining their talented roster and should be in the mix atop the NFC again.
But questions remain about the long-term viability of others areas that will garner plenty of thought from Lynch and Shanahan moving forward as they try to build a contender for seasons beyond 2020.
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— What about cornerback?
This isn’t a reactionary idea based on what happened on third-and-15 in the Super Bowl. To be sure, the NFL’s best pass defense throughout the season is returning all its core contributors in the secondary.
But it’s the future that remains a little murky, particularly at corner, and it’s unclear what contingencies are in place in case things go poorly after nearly everything went right in 2019.
And it’s something the 49ers are fully aware of. They took a calculated risk on moving up for Aiyuk, Shanahan’s favorite receiver in the class, while sacrificing a chance to add mid-round picks where the team has had success in the past, like with Fred Warner, George Kittle and Dre Greenlaw.
The 49ers used none of their five picks on cornerbacks despite their top four players entering the final year of their contracts. Richard Sherman, Ahkello Witherspoon and K’Waun Wiliams are all unsigned beyond 2020. The same is true for Emmanuel Moseley, but the former undrafted rookie will be an exclusive rights free agent, making it likely he returns in 2021.
“To me the hardest thing was decisions we had to make last year,” Shanahan said in his post-draft news conference when asked about balancing winning now versus building for the future, like addressing cornerback before it became a pressing need.
The decisions he referenced were making two trades for veterans. The 49ers sent third- and fourth-round picks to the Broncos last October for Sanders in a move that successfully changed the passing game.
The other was trading a second-round pick for Dee Ford, who had 6.5 sacks in 11 games while dealing with knee and hamstring injuries.
Ultimately, those were short-term decisions San Francisco made because the team wouldn’t have reached the Super Bowl without them, in Shanahan’s mind.
“You make that decision to trade for Emmanuel which I would do over a thousand times,” said Shanahan. “ … There’s a lot of hard decisions in there and that’s why we had to make some tough decisions like losing (Buckner) and things like that. That’s what allowed us to get a draft pick which gave us the chance to maneuver a little bit.
“It was a little bit stressful because not all the tools were there to improve, but when it’s all said and done, I think we maneuvered enough to be able to maintain most of the stuff we had.”
The issue of not taking a corner might not factor into 2020 as much as 2021 when Sherman, Witherspoon and Williams could be playing elsewhere. The 49ers could have traded down from their No. 31 pick, instead of moving up for Aiyuk, giving them a chance at finding a cornerback to groom under Sherman, who turned 32 last month, before eventually replacing him.
Instead, the 49ers are locked into the group they have and hoping Witherspoon or Moseley can develop into a reliable starter.
Both have shown flashes, to be sure, but neither has ever started a full season, and there’s a reason why coordinator Robert Saleh shuffled between the two as late as halftime of the Divisional Round of the playoffs. In the Super Bowl, Witherspoon was benched for Moseley, whose coverage mistake allowed Tyreek Hill to sneak behind him to convert the season-defining third-and-15.
The top backups at cornerback are Dontae Johnson, who has been with six teams since 2018, Jason Verrett, who hasn’t appeared in more than four games since 2016, and Tim Harris, a 2019 sixth-round pick who missed last season due to injury. D.J. Reed has played cornerback, nickel and free safety.
There’s little doubt cornerback behind Sherman is the leanest position on the roster.
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— Can the rookies replace veterans at a high level?
Buckner was the team’s MVP last season. He was the leader on the club’s most valuable position group: the defensive line.
Sanders was the No. 1 receiver, who led by example on top of giving Jimmy Garoppolo a reliable, veteran target he could find in big moments.
Can Kinlaw and Aiyuk provide those things and keep the 49ers in the Super Bowl hunt?
It’s a big ask, although they might not have to. The defensive line room could shift from Buckner’s to Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead’s, allowing Kinlaw to be serviceable early in his development while his talented teammates pick up the slack. In that sense, Kinlaw couldn’t be going to a better situation because he doesn’t have to be team’s best defensive lineman right now.
Similarly, Deebo Samuel could evolve into a true No. 1 wideout, allowing Aiyuk to settle into a complementary role while he learns Shanahan’s hefty playbook.
But there’s also a chance Kinlaw doesn’t live up to his potential, like 2017 first-round pick Solomon Thomas. Or Aiyuk eventually finds himself in Shanahan’s dog house, a la Dante Pettis, and doesn’t provide the same kind of boost as Sanders.
Getting good seasons from the two first-round picks could be massive for the 49ers’ Super Bowl aspirations.
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— What about veterans reportedly on the trade block?
Remember April 20 when former league executive Michael Lombardi tweeted the 49ers were looking to offload pricey veterans like Ford, Jaquiski Tartt and Kwon Alexander, who have all dealt with injury issues in recent seasons?
It led to at least one foolish writer thinking the 49ers could find Tartt’s replacement in the draft a year before his free agency. It led to many others thinking a linebacker could be in the cards allowing the team to move on from Alexander, who had biceps surgery this offseason after tearing his pec on Halloween and going on injured reserve (before a heroic return for the playoffs). Alexander has cap hits of more than $16 million in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
Ford, meanwhile, could be on the outs if he doesn’t have a big season. He’s the team’s second-highest-paid player with a $15.9 million cap hit despite playing just 22% of the defensive snaps last year. And the 49ers don’t have much depth behind him or Nick Bosa, nor did they draft an edge player last week.
The team’s top backup, Ronald Blair III, tore his ACL in November and may not be ready to play by the time the season starts. Thomas has proven to be more effective as an interior player than defensive end.
All of which is to say, as well as the 49ers did to plug their most immediate holes at defensive tackle, wide receiver and left tackle. But they were selective in the needs they addressed. They may have left themselves vulnerable in certain places by not recouping the picks they traded away to add depth to the roster.
The good news: San Francisco currently has picks in each round next season except for the third. That pick went to Washington in the Williams deal.
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