Two years ago this week — a month before the 2018 MLB draft — someone stopped me for a question.
A simple question, really — who were the Detroit Tigers taking with the No. 1 overall pick?
A trick question? The person asking the question was already in a position to know. At first, I thought he wasmessing around. But there was no catch.
When I said, “Casey Mize,” he shrugged his shoulders, didn’t argue and continued on with another conversation.
The next month, the Tigers did indeed take Mize. There really wasn’t any doubt they would — I mean, if I could figure it out, there was no need for the Tigers to overthink the pick.
Two years later, the Tigers are drafting No. 1 again, and there appears to be even less doubt that the Tigers will take this year’s favorite, Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson.
This is not necessarily because of Torkelson’s great power. Nor is it an indictment of Austin Martin — the dynamic Vanderbilt junior and Torkelson’s only true competition for the top spot — or because the Tigers need a first baseman of the future.
It’s because, barring some massive change, Torkelson has already played his way into the No. 1 spot — with this year’s spring seasons canceled, no one can prove that they’re better.
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Perfect Game national director Brian Sakowski doesn’t see any late shuffling coming at the top of draft boards.
“I don’t think so. And to be clear, I don’t know what the gap is, even. I don’t know for a fact that Torkelson was No. 1 on the Tigers’ board when they shut down and now it’s up to Martin to make up ground, but I don’t think that proverbial ground or whatever can be made up like this, unless there’s some new data that a team would get access to.
“But (Torkelson) or Martin would have had to have a J.J. Bleday-like season, a type of season where Martin showed the power that people wanted to see and played center field at a good level and teams got a lot of data on him for them to be like, ‘OK, well, this is a slam dunk.’ I think there’s more of that data on Torkelson, as far as like, ‘Well, we know this guy is going to hit 30 bombs.’”
This week, I looked at the differences between Torkelson and Martin, who talent evaluators speculate has the ability to play shortstop in the big leagues after playing center field this year and third base on the Commodores’ national championship team last year.
Torkelson is a true slugger with what’s considered to be elite power: In two-plus seasons with Arizona State, he hit .337 with 54 home runs and 363 total bases. Over the same span, Martin has hit for a better average (.368) with 289 total bases, though his superior athleticism and speed added 43 stolen bases.
While offense is top-of-mind when talking the top pick, Torkelson also holds his own on defense: Simply put, if Martin could have proved he could play shortstop, he might have narrowed the gap. But that’s just speculation for now, and there’s at least a little uncertainty to where he will play in the future.
The Tigers, for years, have drafted with a “best player available” strategy. In baseball, the draft is not about filling needs as it is about injecting the most talent into your system.
But sometimes, rarely, needs matter.
With multiple top pitching prospects on the doorstep of the major leagues and a farm system in desperate need of impact bats, the Tigers are one of those points.
The need is especially apparent at first — Miguel Cabrera was permanently moved off first base in 2019, free-agent signee C.J. Cron is on a one-year contract and there are no true prospects in the minors. Lucky for them, Torkelson, the best hitter in the draft, will be sitting right there.
He’s spoken of as a guy that you can plug into the middle of your lineup for the foreseeable future and count on at least 30 home runs. Maybe 40.
He could be the one prospect to rule them all, the one who truly signals the Tigers’ return to contention.
“I think it’s too perfect of a fit,” Sakowski said.
It sure seems that way, and with not much shuffling likely on teams’ draft boards, it’s hard to see how the Tigers don’t select Torkelson with the top pick.
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