Here’s an understatement of all understatements: This is a huge week for John Calipari and Kentucky basketball.
The deadline for an underclassman to remove his name from the NBA Draft list is Wednesday, May 31. After that, we should know much more about what UK’s basketball roster will look like for the 2023-24 season.
Right now, we know this: Calipari has seven scholarship players on board. Five are freshmen — Aaron Bradshaw, Robert Dillingham, Justin Edwards, Reed Sheppard and D.J. Wagner. Two are sophomores — Ugonna Onyenso and Adou Thiero. That’s it.
Oscar Tshiebwe, Antonio Reeves and Chris Livingston have decisions to make. If all three return, or even if two of the three return, the Cats could be flying high next season. If all three depart, however, commence scramble mode.
My guess is Livingston stays in the draft. There has been little buzz about the sophomore-to-be returning to Lexington. He had a good but not great freshman season when he averaged 6.3 points and 4.2 rebounds per game. He’s a developing talent. He might wish to develop at the next level, even if that means the NBA G League.
Reeves is trickier to predict. The transfer from Illinois State was UK’s second-leading scorer at 14.4 points per game last season. He was not invited to the NBA Draft Combine, leading to speculation he might pull out of the draft. Since then, however, rumors have popped up that Reeves might finish degree this summer and play elsewhere as a graduate transfer. In the end, I’m guessing Reeves returns.
Last but not least, my prediction is Tshiebwe remains in the draft. His NBA Draft Combine performance gave hope he could be selected come June 22 in Brooklyn. And other than more NIL money, Oscar might also believe he has nothing left to prove by returning to the college game. To expand his game, he needs to play against professional competition.
For the sake of argument, let’s say the trio has played its final games in a Kentucky uniform. If so, Calipari has to take a deep dive into what’s left in the transfer portal.
Kentucky basketball’s transfer portal possibilities
Reports surfaced last week that UK is interested in Tennessee forward Julian Phillips. The 6-foot-8 South Carolina native averaged 8.3 points and 4.7 rebounds as a freshman for the Vols. Phillips entered the NBA Draft, but the belief is he withdraws, then transfers. If true, Kentucky would be a welcome landing spot.
UK has also been linked to St. John’s transfer David Jones, a 6-6 wing from the Dominican Republic. Jones averaged 13.2 points and 6.8 rebounds last season but hit the portal once Rick Pitino became the Red Storm’s new coach. Jones shot just 39.2 percent from the floor last season, including a paltry 29.4 percent from three-point range.
To this point, Calipari hasn’t taken a player from the portal. The coach initially said he needed to see what the roster shake-out looked like before adding a transfer. But Kentucky did swing and miss on ex-Michigan center Hunter Dickinson (Kansas) and ex-San Diego State forward Keshad Johnson (Arizona).
Aside from that two-platoon team that went 38-1 in 2014-15, Calipari hasn’t been a 10-player coach. He likes to reduce his rotation to seven or eight dependable players by tournament time. Injuries to Sahvir Wheeler and CJ Fredrick caused Cal to alter that scenario last season, but only seven players ended up averaging double figures in minutes.
Still, even by Cal’s standards, seven scholarship players is an impossibly thin roster. No way that holds up over a long season. And the Cats’ trip to Canada to represent Team USA in the 2023 GLOBL JAM begins July 12. That’s a little over six weeks away.
Maybe I’m wrong. (As usual.) Maybe Tshiebwe, Reeves and Livingston all return and Calipari has a loaded roster for a potential Final Four run. Maybe two of the three return — any two — bringing needed experience for a very green team, even by Calipari’s standards.
If not, there will be plenty of last-minute scrambling in the offices at the Joe Craft Center.
Either way, this week we should finally be getting some answers.